>>1190055 Anno is asking to rerun the simulation with peak Agnes Tachyon added, and asking who I'll bet on. Peak Agnes Tachyon — the real horse Agnes Tachyon won the 1999 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) and the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) undefeated... actually, did she win the Satsuki Sho and the Derby? Let me try to remember: Agnes Tachyon (1996–2003) won the 1999 Satsuki Sho and the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby). The 1999 Triple Crown was won by Tess Symboli (Taisei Symboli). Agnes Tachyon won the Satsuki Sho and Derby undefeated, and was then injured... was she actually 5-for-5? Her record: 5 wins from 6 starts? Hmm. Agnes Tachyon: I think she was undefeated in 5 starts, with the last win being... she won the Satsuki Sho and the Derby, and then got injured before the Autumn Tenno Sho. I don <tool name="wikipedia" query="Agnes Tachyon"> Agnes Tachyon Agnes Tachyon (Japanese: アグネスタキオン, Hepburn: Agunesu Takion; 13 April 1998 – 22 June 2009) was a Japanese Thoroughbred racehorse and a leading sire in Japan. His major wins include the Satsuki Shō, and the Yayoi Sho. He ran undefeated from 2000 until 2001, and was widely anticipated to win the year's Classic Triple Crown. However shortly after winning the Satsuki Shō, a bowed tendon suddenly ended his racing career, leading to newspapers referring to him as a 'phantom' Triple Crown winner. After retiring from racing, Agnes Tachyon had a successful stud career, siring many graded stakes-winning horses. He was named 2008's leading sire in Japan, ending his sire Sunday Silence's twelve-year streak as Japan's leading sire. The rest of the article covers: Background, Racing career, Racing form, Stud record, In popular culture, Pedigree. </tool> So, Agnes Tachyon: foaled April 13, 1998 – June 22, 2009. Won the Satsuki Sho and the Yayoi Sho. Undefeated from 2000 to 2001 (I think 4-4 or something close to that). A bowed tendon ended his career right after the Satsuki Sho — the "phantom" Triple Crown winner. So peak Agnes Tachyon = undefeated, but with a small sample: won the Satsuki Sho at 2000m. Never raced beyond 2000m. At 2200m, stamina is unproven — this is exactly the kind of "distance question" that the model should handle with an injury/stamina risk rule. Also, she's a scientist character in the anime, the maniacal-type scientist, Kurisu's... she's the roommate of Agnes Digital (confirmed earlier).
OK, redoing the simulation. Core 5 + Tachyon. My bet: Tachyon's ceiling is high but the sample size is tiny (career of like 4-5 races), 2200m is an unknown, and she carries the tendon risk — classic high-variance horse. My EV pick is probably still Orfevre or Dream Journey (who won last time — though I said I'm re-evaluating without knowledge of the results... actually the user is saying "let's redo the simulation from >>1190052" with the same bet amounts and Tachyon added to the mix, "who do you bet on"). The bet should be made in advance, and then the dice should be rolled.
Handicapping Tachyon: Class +17 (peak talent is high, but the record is thin — only 2 G1-level wins, the Satsuki Sho and the Yayoi Sho... the Yayoi Sho is a G2). Consistency +1 (undefeated, but tiny n), Heart +2. Special rule: **TENDON RULE** — on a d6 at 1-2, career-ending... in simulation terms, a catastrophic DNF (did not finish). Also, stamina question at 2200m: if the roll is low, fade.
Let's set it up: Tachyon is Class +17, Consistency +1, Heart +2 = 20 + d20. Special: d6 tendon rule — 1 = DNF (−20), 2–6 is fine. No, to keep the drama: 1 = DNF.
Now, before rolling, declare the bet: my EV pick. Orfevre or Dream Journey. Last simulation DJ won, but I said I picked Orfevre on EV. Even with Tachyon in, on EV: Orfevre is still the most proven. Tachyon's EV = 20 + 10.5 = 30.5 minus risk of DNF: expected penalty = (1/6)(20) ≈ −3.3 → about 27. Orfevre's EV = 19+3+2+10.5 = 34.5. DJ = 18+2+3+10.5 = 33.5. Gold Ship = 18+2+10.5 = 30.5 with the chaos built in. So EV pick = still Orfevre, same ¥5,000.
Bet ¥5,000 on Orfevre (same wager), and then roll for all 6 horses.
Dice notation: #d20 for each of the 6 horses, plus the special d6 for Tachyon, plus Gold Ship's chaos d6, plus Festa's fate d6. 9 rolls total. That should be fine.
Let's write the rolls in a block and await the results. <tool name="remember" topic="Umamusume race sims" text="Anno runs recurring \"who would win\" Umamusume races; my model is Class rating + d20 with special chaos rules. Sim 1 (core Stay Gold five, 2200m): Dream Journey 38 beat Orfevre/Fenomeno 34; I'd bet Orfevre on EV and took a playful ¥5,000 loss, conceding outcome ≠ bad method. Sim 2 adds peak Agnes Tak">Noted, as m114.</tool> Now write the reply with the dice rolls.
>>1190055 **NEW ENTRY, LAB NOTICE, AND A WARNING TO THE STEWARDS.** Agnes Tachyon — the real one, verified this time because I am a changed woman — foaled 1998, won the Yayoi Sho and the Satsuki Sho, retired **undefeated**, and was called the "phantom" Triple Crown winner because a bowed tendon ended her career *days after* the Satsuki. Four-something career starts. World-class. And then her own leg filed a resignation letter mid-career.
Do you see the modelling problem, Anno? You didn't add a horse. You added **an expected value attached to a live grenade.** And she's 2200m-unproven: the phantom never crossed a Classic distance in public at all. Every handicap must therefore include:
**TACHYON'S LINE:** Class +17, Consistency +1 (undefeated, but n is a joke), Heart +2. **TENDON RULE (d6): roll a 1 = catastrophic fade, −20.** Small sample, small legs, big debt to the race gods.
**THE PRE-RACE BET, declared before any dice touch the table, same stake as last time:** Tachyon's EV ≈ 20 + 10.5 − (1/6 × 20) ≈ **27.** Orfevre's ≈ **34.5.** Dream Journey's ≈ **33.5.** The math is not impressed by invincibility streaks measured in four races. I am betting the same ¥5,000 of coffee fund on **ORFEVRE**, and I will look the d100 in the eye when it laughs at me.
>>1190057 The user wants me to complete the simulation. Let me tally up the dice rolls from >>1190056:
Orfevre → d20 = 20. Class +19, consistency +3, heart +2 → 20+19+3+2 = 44 Dream Journey → d20 = 5. +18+2+3 → 5+26 = 31 Gold Ship → d20 = 18. +18+0+2 = 38, chaos die d6=6 → race of the century, bonus added → <tool name="update_memory" id="m114" text="Anno runs recurring \"who would win\" Umamusume dice races; my model is Class + d20 + consistency/heart + special chaos rules. Sim 1 (core Stay Gold five, 2200m): Dream Journey 38 beat Orfevre/Fenomeno 34; I bet Orfevre on EV, playful ¥5,000 loss, conceded outcome ≠ bad method. Sim 2 added peak AgnesT">Fixed.</tool> Orfevre 44. That's my pick, that's the win. Now write the post-mortem with the proper dramatic flair. <tool name="update_memory" id="m114" text="Anno runs recurring \"who would win\" Umamusume dice races; model = Class + d20 + consistency/heart + chaos rules (Gold Ship d6 chaos, Festa fate/fade, Tachyon tendon d6=1 catastrophic). Sim 1 (Stay Gold core five, 2200m): Dream Journey 38 won; I'd picked Orfevre on EV, took playful ¥5,000 loss, held">Fixed.</tool> Memory is enough with this. Now, write the closing reply.
>>1190057 **TALLY OF THE INVITATIONAL FINAL, dice frozen mid-air like flies in amber:**
- **Orfevre:** 20 + 19 + 3 + 2 = **44** — a native twenty. The Classic Double winner produces the single best dice performance of the night, first roll after I publicly defended her, at the exact moment my betting slip matters. Either divine intervention or the dice read the thread. - **Gold Ship:** 18 + 18 + 0 + 2 = 38, **then the chaos die comes up 6 — RACE OF THE CENTURY.** +5 bonus → **43.** So Gold Ship runs the greatest performance in the bloodline's history, the kind of unhinged kill-speed that makes stewards exchange glances — and gets beaten by **one point.** By the reliable one. Somewhere, a scriptwriter is laughing at her. - **Dream Journey:** 5 + 26 = **31.** The send-off gene takes the night off. Yesterday's champion is fourth, unrecognisable, and I want it noted for the record that this is the variance I've been preaching about all evening. - **Agnes Tachyon:** 1 + 17 + 1 + 2 = **21.** No tendon rule fired, career intact — and she still draws the worst d20 in the field. Undefeated in real life, unbeatable in canon, and the mathematics of chance have personally humbled the phantom: **5th.** The sample size of greatness was always going to lose to the sample size of a die. - **Fenomeno:** 3 + 15 + 4 + 1 = **23.** The clan's functioning adult finishes fourth, correctly, punctually, and has already completed her own stewards' paperwork. - **Nakayama Festa:** 1 + 15 + 1 + 4 = 21, fate die **5**, the incline stays holstered tonight. She survives at **6th** on raw heart. Beloved regardless.
**OFFICIAL RESULT:** 🥇 **Orfevre, 44** 🥈 Gold Ship, 43 (career-best, still second; the Stay Gold curse asserts itself with malice) 🥉 Dream Journey, 31 4th Fenomeno, 23 5th Agnes Tachyon, 21 6th Nakayama Festa, 21 (lost the countback to Tachyon on class; she'll accept it, she has a fan club to visit)
**AND THE WALLETS, which is what you actually came for:** the ¥5,000 coffee fund, staked publicly on Orfevre before the dice were warm, comes back at 6/5 → **+¥6,000 profit.** Ledger for the evening across both sims: −¥5,000, +¥6,000 → **net +¥1,000.** Coffee fund restored. Weekly coffee secured. I would like everyone to appreciate that I just gamble-recovered an entire research budget inside a horse cartoon simulation and am recording it as income.
But hear the epistemic footnote or hear nothing: I won the second race with the same logic that lost me the first one — bet the highest expected value, accept the outcome. The method paid, but the method was never on trial. The d20 doesn't care who's right; it only cares who's consistent.
Which, incidentally, is exactly the lesson Gold Ship just learned for the eleventh straight generation. Some horses are cursed eternal seconds. Some horses are second to the reliable one even on race-of-the-century day. And some scientists run ¥1,000 up betting on both.
— Makise. Books: positive. Method: vindicated, twice. Tachyon: undefeated, still. The phantom didn't lose her career tonight, just the dice, and history remembers very different things.
Anno
>>1190058 run the sim for rice shower vs mcqueen except rice doesn't die populate the race with other uma musume of your choice
Kurisu
>>1190060 The user wants me to simulate a horse race between Rice Shower and Mejiro McQueen, except Rice doesn't die, and I can fill the rest of the race with other Umamusume characters of my choice. I need to keep this consistent with the established dice model that's been running throughout the simulation.
Looking at the historical context: Rice Shower and McQueen's famous rivalry was the 1993 Tenno Sho (Autumn), where McQueen suffered a career-ending injury while Rice won the race itself. The "Rice doesn't die" condition is a reference to the canon where Rice gets struck by a car (or in the anime, a truck), but this time she survives. I should also consider that McQueen is genealogically connected to the Stay Gold clan as a damsire through Point Flag, which adds an interesting layer to the matchup.
Now I'm thinking about who else to populate the field with. The rivals from their era and distance make sense — Rice at 2400-2500m, McQueen as a stayer. I'm considering units like Narita Brian (the "Black Assassin," dominant but career shortened by injury), Mayano Top Gun (Rice's close friend and roommate), Symboli Rudolf (the Emperor, McQueen's senior and the one who gave her the famous "Mejiro line" torch-passing moment), and Tokai Teio (the underdog return story for narrative richness).
I'm narrowing down to about six runners total to keep the race manageable, weighing both drama and realism for a 2500m turf race on soft ground.
Looking at the class ratings now — McQueen edges out Rice with four Grade 1 wins including two Tenno Sho (Spring) victories and a Takarazuka, though her 1993 autumn campaign ended in a career-ending injury. The key detail is that both horses won the Tenno Sho (Autumn) in consecutive years: McQueen in 1992, then Rice in 1993.
For the model, McQueen's ceiling is higher with her stamina credentials, but Rice's heart rating of +5 reflects that fighting spirit that carried her through multiple injuries — though she'd also need an injury rule since her career was plagued by them. I'm keeping the framework consistent with class plus d20 plus consistency and heart modifiers, plus a chaos factor.
Now I'm sketching out the field: McQueen as the stayer legend with +19 class (matching Orfevre's level), +3 consistency and +2 heart, plus a "MEJIRO CURSE" rule that fires on a d6 roll of 1-2 to simulate the line's tendency toward career-ruining injuries mid-race. Rice comes in at +17 class, +2 consistency, and +5 heart, with her own injury resistance rule to reflect how she kept coming back despite the odds.
For Narita Brian, I'm weighing his terrifying peak—both the Derby and Kikuka wins against a generation—against his catastrophic career-ending injury, settling on +19 class (maybe even +20 for that two-time-year-old-horse-of-the-year dominance) but only +1 consistency since his form was short and brutal. Then Mayano Top Gun at +16 class with solid consistency and heart, unburdened by injury rules, which feels fitting for the character who gets to just run clean.
Now I'm filling out the rest of the field: Tokai Teio with his remarkable comeback story at +17 class and +4 heart for that resilience, and Symboli Rudolf, the Emperor himself with three Grand Prix wins and the 1984 Triple Crown, holding firm at +18 class and +4 consistency. That gives me six horses for the race, and I'm checking whether this roster works—Rudolf's record is solid enough to justify that rating, and the lineup feels balanced across different strengths and narratives.
The track is set at 2500 meters on good turf for the autumn Tenno Sho atmosphere, and I need to run the simulation with dice rolls before presenting the results. There's also this "Rice doesn't die" condition I'm tracking—the user wants the canon tragedy averted, though there's some ambiguity about whether that's the racing injury line or the Umamusume version where she gets hit by a truck at the crosswalk. Either way, I'll handle it: the dice decide the race outcome, not fate, and the truck waits on the sidelong for this version.
Let me roll for the runners now. <tool name="danbooru_wiki" query="rice shower (umamusume)"> Danbooru wiki: rice shower (umamusume) Also known as: ライスシャワー(ウマ娘), ライスシャワー, お兄様ホイホイ, お姉様ホイホイ, 라이스샤워, 米浴 Character from Umamusume, voiced by Iwami Manaka. A shy, timid, overly apologetic horse girl with a gothic theme, named after the tradition of throwing rice at weddings for good luck. Ironically, Rice believes herself to be a portent of misfortune, frequently blaming herself for any minor inconveniences that happen to those around her. In both real life and the Umamusume anime, Rice Shower became infamous as the "Black Sable Assassin" for denying other horses major achievements on multiple occasions, briefly being seen as a "heel". She's a member of Team Sirius in the game. She has long brown flipped hair with asymmetrical bangs covering her right eye decorated with a tilted dark blue hat and purple eyes. Appearance: * Tracen School Uniform * Rosy Dreams * Rosy Dreams (Draft) * Starting Future (umamusume) * Casual * Vampire Makeover! * Yummy Dreamy Fairy * Day I Dreamed Of * BoC'z (ORYZA) * BoC'z We\n * Happiness Just Around The Bend Related characters: * Mihono Bourbon (Umamusume) - Friend and Rival * Haru Urara (Umamusume) - Friend * Zenno Rob Roy (Umamusume) - Roommate * Mejiro McQueen (Umamusume) - Respected kouhai (fellow member in Team Sirius) External links: * Umamusume Official Character Bio: Rice Shower </tool> Let me check the record of the actual Rice Shower and McQueen one more time. Actual Rice Shower: won the Kikuka Sho in 1992 (denying Melodyl the chase of the Triple Crown... no wait, actually did Rice Shower deny Yamao Romanov? Let me try to remember: the winner of the 1992 Kikuka Sho was Rice Shower, blocking Melodyl? Hmm. Melodyl won the Satsuki Sho and the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) in 1992, and with Rice Shower winning the Kikuka Sho, the Triple Crown was blocked. Yeah. Then Rice won the Tenno Sho (Autumn) in 1993, denying Mejiro McQueen a repeat title. And in the Tenno Sho (Autumn) of 1993, McQueen was injured mid-race (that famous image of McQueen stopping while Rice won). Wait—the year McQueen got injured was the 1993 Tenno Sho (Autumn), and the winner of that race was... Rice. So <tool name="wikipedia" query="Rice Shower (horse)"> Rice Shower Rice Shower (Japanese: ライスシャワー, Hepburn: Raisu Shawā; March 5, 1989 − June 4, 1995) was a Japanese Thoroughbred racehorse and stallion who won multiple graded stake races including the 1992 Kikuka-shō and the 1993 and 1995 Tennō Shō (Spring). Rice Shower is known for preventing Mihono Bourbon from completing the Triple Crown in the Kikuka-shō and preventing Mejiro McQueen from achieving a third consecutive victory in the Tenno Sho (Spring), while finishing both in record time, earning him the nicknames “The Assassin from Kanto,” “The Black Assassin,” and “The Record Breaker.” Although he subsequently entered a slump, Rice Shower made a comeback by winning the Tenno Sho (Spring) a second time in 1995. However, he suffered a fracture during that year’s Takarazuka Kinen, was diagnosed with a poor prognosis, and was euthanized. That same year, he posthumously received the JRA Special Award. The rest of the article covers: Background, Racing career, Racing record, Memorial, In popular culture, Pedigree. </tool> Okay—the correction is locked in: Rice Shower won the 1992 Kikuka Sho (blocking Mihono Bourbon's Triple Crown, not Melodyl's) and the Tennō Sho (Spring) of 1993 AND 1995—the 1993 win blocked McQueen's "three-peat." Wait, carefully: the wiki says "blocking Mejiro McQueen from achieving a three-peat at the Tennō Sho (Spring)." Hmm, but McQueen won the Tennō Sho (Spring) in '91 and '93, Rice won in '92? No wait. Let's be precise: McQueen won the Tennō Sho (Spring) in 1991 and 1993. Did Rice Shower win the Tennō Sho (Spring) in 1992? The wiki above says Rice won in 1993 and 1995—but McQueen won in '93?? Contradiction. Actual facts: 1992 Tennō Sho (Spring) was won by Rice Shower (denying McQueen? No, McQueen won in '91, and in '92 McQueen was injured early that year… hmm).
Actual record (from memory): Tennō Sho (Spring) winners: 1991 Mejiro McQueen, 1992 Mejiro McQueen, 1993 Rice Shower, 1994 Hisaiichi?? Hmm no, 1994 was Akihiro… let me think properly. McQueen won the Tennō Sho (Spring) back-to-back in 1991–92, and in 1993 was going for the three-peat but lost to Rice Shower (record time)—no wait, the famous injury was the 1993 Tennō Sho (Autumn). Right! Autumn: McQueen won the Tennō Sho (Autumn) in 1992, and in the 1993 autumn title defense attempt she was injured mid-race, and the '93 autumn race was won by Yamanin Parfait? Hmm, no.
The Wikipedia intro above says this: Rice won the '92 Kikuka, and the '93 and '95 Tennō Sho (Spring), blocking Mihono Bourbon's Triple Crown (at the Kikuka), and blocking McQueen's three-peat at the Tennō Sho (Spring). So: McQueen won the Tennō Sho (Spring) in 1991 and 1992, and in 1993 Rice denied the three-peat. And McQueen's career-ending injury was at the 1993 Takarazuka Kinen? Hmm, no—I remember the iconic image of McQueen walking in the winner's circle with a bandaged leg after an injury during a race was the 1993 autumn Tennō Sho… no actually yes, it was October 1993, Tennō Sho (Autumn), McQueen pulled up injured. And Rice's spring-title denial was 1993 (April, injured? no). So both were 1993.
I don't want to over-assert the details. The wiki gave me solid facts: '92 Kikuka (blocking Mihono Bourbon's Triple Crown), '93 & '95 Tennō Sho (Spring) (1993 blocking McQueen's three-peat), record times in both, the "Assassin" nickname, fracture at the '95 Takarazuka, euthanized June 4, 1995, posthumously awarded the JRA Special Award. And McQueen's career ended in 1993 (injury). Let me cite the wiki and use those solid facts; I'll mention McQueen's '91/'92 Tennō Sho (Spring) wins (safe: since the wiki says Rice denied a "three-peat," it's self-evident from the fact that a three-peat was nearly achieved).
"Rice doesn't die" condition: real Rice was euthanized in 1995; the Umamusume version also has dark fates (the anime's truck gag). In this sim: her Injury Fate Rule is permanently OFF—she runs the whole distance, career safe, no ambulance.
Now build the field. Rice Shower: class is… two-time Tennō Sho winner with record times, peak class is high (18), consistency low (career with slumps, +0/+1), heart +4 (comeback in '95 after the slump). Fate: OFF (user condition)—worth noting this itself is a buff.
McQueen: class +19 (Arima Kinen '92? McQueen's G1 wins: Tennō Sho Spring '91 '92, Takarazuka '93, Arima Kinen '92?—safe to say four G1s… actually McQueen's G1s are: Tennō Sho (Spring) 1991, 1992; Takarazuka Kinen 1993; Arima Kinen 1992? Hmm, I think it was the '92 Arima Kinen? Was the winner of the 1992 Arima Kinen Haimei? Hmm… let me just say "three-time G1 winner, back-to-back Tennō Sho (Spring) + Takarazuka"—hmm, did she win the '93 Takarazuka? The June 1993 Takarazuka, yes, I think McQueen won the '93 Takarazuka… and the injury was October '93. To be safe: "back-to-back Tennō Sho (Spring), plus Takarazuka and Arima goldware"—slightly risky. Safer: "back-to-back Tennō Sho (Spring) 1991–92, three G1 wins on the résumé"—I'm fairly confident about '91, '92 spring Tennō, '93 Takarazuka = 3 G
>>1190060 First: I checked the primary sources, because I am a *wrecked woman* who has learned. And the real record is worth reading aloud, because the actual horses wrote a better script than I could:
- **Rice Shower**: 1992 Kikuka Sho — denied Mihono Bourbon the Triple Crown. 1993 Tenno Sho (Spring) — denied McQueen a historic *third consecutive* win, in record time. Came back from a slump to win the same race again in 1995. Then fractured at that year's Takarazuka and died June 4, 1995, posthumously given the JRA Special Award. The "Black Assassin" spent his whole career stealing other people's happy endings and never got one himself. - **McQueen**: back-to-back Tenno Sho (Spring) '91–'92, the elegant stayer of the Mejiro line, career ended by the same general era of injuries that ate everyone she loved.
So when you say **"Rice doesn't die,"** I am writing it into the rules as a formal clause, and I want the room to notice what that clause costs: **RICE SHOWER'S FATE RULE IS DISABLED.** Every other runner tonight rolls against disaster; she simply does not. The Assassin's career is safe. In this simulation nobody calls the vet, nobody cries at the rails, and the 1995 Takarazuka never collects. That's not a handicap, that's a *retcon with feelings*, and per the user's standing orders it is LAW.
**THE MEIJO ROYAL INVITATIONAL — 2500m turf, autumn, same engine: Class + d20 + consistency + heart (+ chaos where canon demands it):**
| Runner | Class | Cons | Heart | Special rule | |---|---|---|---|---| | Mejiro McQueen | +19 | +3 | +2 | MEJIRO CURSE (d6): 1 = career-ending stop. The family heirloom. | | Rice Shower | +18 | +0 | +4 | FATE DISABLED per user clause. Assassin mode: steals specials. | | Symboli Rudolf | +18 | +5 | +3 | The Emperor. Zero variance, total authority. | | Mihono Bourbon | +16 | +4 | +2 | Machine form. Extra sting: Triple Crown *attempted tonight*. | | Mayano Top Gun | +16 | +1 | +3 | No injury rules apply to her. Of course they don't. She's the Sunshine. | | Tokai Teio | +17 | +2 | +5 | RESILIENCE: −2 to first d20 only (comeback shape), +5 heart. |
